01 Rapeseed

In the 45th week (November 4-November 8, 2024), the national average price of rapeseed net seeds was 2.963 yuan/jin. The rapeseed price in Jiangsu was around 3.00 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Hunan was 2.90-2.95 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Hubei was around 2.90 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Sichuan was 3.05-3.10 yuan/jin, which was stable. The rapeseed market conditions in various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various parts of China remained stable. There is less high-quality rapeseed on the market, and the demand is still good. The sales of rapeseed of average quality are slow and the demand is average. In terms of supply, the domestic rapeseed supply is still sufficient and the supply is loose, which is bearish for the rapeseed market. As rapeseed meal is in the off-season, the demand for rapeseed has weakened, which has a certain suppression on rapeseed prices. For international rapeseed, the strike of Canadian workers has caused delays in the shipment of Canadian rapeseed, boosting the rapeseed market. The supply and demand of rapeseed is in a relatively balanced state, and the price performance is relatively stable.

It is expected that domestic rapeseed will remain stable in the short term. The domestic rapeseed market has been trading steadily recently, and the price has not changed much. In the future, pay more attention to the downstream demand of domestic rapeseed, China-Canada trade relations and the subsequent development of anti-dumping incidents.

02 Rapeseed Oil

In the 45th week (November 4-November 8, 2024), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 9,882 yuan/ton, an increase of 154 yuan/ton from last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices continued to rise this week, and the main rapeseed oil 2409 closed at 9,847 yuan/ton on Friday. The main reason for the rise is that the harvest of rapeseed is nearing the end, and the export pressure is strong, which suppresses the rapeseed oil market. In addition, palm oil has entered a seasonal reduction in production, and India's import demand is strong. Indonesia has raised the reference price of palm oil and export tax, supporting the Malaysian palm market, thereby boosting the rapeseed oil market.

In the spot market, domestic rapeseed supply is abundant, coastal oil mills maintain a high operating rate, and rapeseed oil inventories are at a relatively high level. Rapeseed oil shows strong supply and weak demand, and the fundamentals are weak, dragging down the rapeseed oil market.

It is expected that the overall rapeseed oil futures spot price will fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and rapeseed and rapeseed oil will continue to arrive at the port, with sufficient supply. The reduction in palm oil production and policy relations are strong, supporting rapeseed oil, so the possibility of rapeseed oil falling is not great. Overall, there are many bullish factors for oils and fats, and it will take some time for the market to digest them. It is expected that it will still be dominated by strong fluctuations.

03 Rapeseed Meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in Week 45 (November 4-November 8, 2024) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, the price of rapeseed meal stopped falling and rebounded. The main reason for the rise is from macro factors. With Trump taking office, the market is more worried about the Sino-US trade war, which has led to an increase in the prices of US soybeans and soybean meal. At present, the fundamentals of rapeseed meal are still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The inventory of rapeseed meal is at a high level, and the supply of rapeseed meal is sufficient. In terms of demand, rapeseed meal transactions are sluggish, and the demand for rapeseed meal is weakened due to the off-season of aquaculture. The actual transaction volume is general, and downstream purchases are cautious. It is expected that rapeseed meal will run weakly in the short term. Rapeseed meal lacks favorable factors to support it. The supply is strong and the demand is weak. The price-performance ratio of soybean meal is better than that of rapeseed meal, which suppresses the rapeseed meal market. In the later period, pay more attention to the price difference of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the price difference of sunflower meal and rapeseed meal, the port arrival volume and the start-up situation, and continue to pay attention to the trade relations between China and Canada and China and the United States.