01 Rapeseed

In the 44th week (October 28-November 1, 2024), the national average price of rapeseed net seeds was 2.963 yuan/jin. The rapeseed price in Jiangsu was around 3.00 yuan/jin, which was down; the rapeseed price in Hunan was 2.90-2.95 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Hubei was around 2.90 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Sichuan was 3.05-3.10 yuan/jin, which was up. The rapeseed market conditions in various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various parts of the country were weak. The trading volume of the rapeseed market was stable, and traders were willing to support prices. On the supply side, the domestic rapeseed supply was still sufficient, and the supply was loose, which was bearish for the rapeseed market. On the demand side, due to the continuous decline in rapeseed meal prices and poor demand, the demand for rapeseed weakened, which had a certain suppression on rapeseed prices. International rapeseed, farmers in western Canada have basically completed the rapeseed harvest. Statistics Canada has not yet released the final production forecast, and Canadian rapeseed prices have rebounded slightly, but the increase is limited.

It is expected that domestic rapeseed will be mainly stable in the short term. The domestic rapeseed market has been trading steadily recently, and the price has not changed much. In addition, dealers and farmers are willing to support prices, and the possibility of a decline is not great. In the future, pay more attention to the downstream demand for domestic rapeseed, China-Canada trade relations, and the subsequent development of anti-dumping incidents.

02 Rapeseed Oil

In the 44th week (October 28-November 1, 2024), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 9,848 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices continued to rise this week, and the main rapeseed oil 2409 closed at 9779 yuan/ton on Friday. The main reasons for the rise are 1. Palm oil production cuts provide support, and palm oil continues to rise. 2. Higher crude oil prices boost vegetable oil prices. 3. It is currently the Diwali Festival in India, and demand for palm oil has increased. It is good for the oil and fat market.

In the spot market, oil mills have been active in buying ships recently, the amount of rapeseed oil arriving at ports has continued to increase, rapeseed oil inventories are at a high level, and rapeseed oil supply is sufficient. In terms of demand, rapeseed oil demand is weak, which is bearish for the rapeseed oil market. Rapeseed oil has strong supply and weak demand, dragging down the rapeseed oil market.

It is expected that the overall spot price of rapeseed oil futures will fluctuate at a high level in the short term. In the fourth quarter, rapeseed and rapeseed oil will arrive at ports in sufficient quantities, and the supply pressure is high. Palm oil continues to perform strongly, which will support rapeseed oil in the short term. Overall, the bullish drive for oil and fat still exists, and it is expected to remain strong and volatile.

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in Week 44 (October 28-November 1, 2024) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

The price of rapeseed meal fell this week. At present, domestic rapeseed meal inventory is high and demand is weak. The import volume of rapeseed meal has increased, the inventory of rapeseed meal is high, and the supply of rapeseed meal is sufficient. In terms of demand, rapeseed meal transactions are sluggish. Coupled with the off-season of aquaculture, the demand for rapeseed meal has weakened, and rapeseed meal is sold at a reduced price. It is expected that rapeseed meal will be weak in the short term. Rapeseed meal lacks favorable factors to support it. Strong supply and weak demand suppress the rapeseed meal market. In the later period, pay more attention to the price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal, the price difference between sunflower and rapeseed meal, the volume of arrival and the start-up situation, and continue to pay attention to the trade relationship between China and Canada.