01 Rapeseed

In the 43rd week (October 21-October 25, 2024), the national average price of rapeseed net seeds was 2.977 yuan/jin. The rapeseed price in Jiangsu was around 3.07-3.10 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Hunan was 2.90-2.95 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Hubei was around 2.90 yuan/jin, which was stable; the rapeseed price in Sichuan was 3.03-3.08 yuan/jin, which was rising. The rapeseed market conditions in various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, the overall rapeseed prices in various parts of the country did not change much. There was a slight increase in Sichuan, and the sales speed accelerated; the spring rapeseed prices in Yunnan fell, mainly due to the decline in quality. The rapeseed market transaction volume is stable, and traders are willing to support prices. The domestic rapeseed supply is still sufficient. In terms of demand, due to the continuous decline in rapeseed meal prices and poor demand, rapeseed demand has weakened, which is bearish for the rapeseed market. However, the rapeseed oil market is strong, supporting the rapeseed market price. The Canadian rapeseed production is expected to be lowered, and the Canadian rapeseed price has rebounded slightly, but the increase is limited.

It is expected that domestic rapeseed will be mainly stable in the short term. The domestic rapeseed market has been trading steadily recently, with little price change, and dealers and farmers are willing to support prices, so there is little possibility of a decline. In the future, pay more attention to the downstream demand for domestic rapeseed, China-Canada trade relations, and the subsequent development of anti-dumping incidents.

02 Rapeseed oil

In the 43rd week (October 21-October 25, 2024), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 9,848 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices continued to rise this week, and the main rapeseed oil 2409 closed at 9735 yuan/ton on Friday. The main reason for the rise is the rise in Canadian rapeseed prices, the increase in the cost of domestic imported rapeseed arriving at the port, and the increase in rapeseed oil production costs, which support the rapeseed oil market. In addition, the expected reduction in palm oil production is a positive support, and palm oil continues to rise, leading the three major oils.

In the spot market, the arrival volume of rapeseed oil in the fourth quarter continued to increase, rapeseed oil inventories were at a high level, and rapeseed oil supply was sufficient. In terms of demand, rapeseed oil demand has weakened after the holidays, which is bearish for the rapeseed oil market. Rapeseed oil has strong supply and weak demand, dragging down the rapeseed oil market.

It is expected that the overall rapeseed oil futures spot price will fluctuate at a high level in the short term. In the fourth quarter, rapeseed and rapeseed oil will arrive at the port in sufficient quantities, and the supply pressure will be great. Palm oil performed the best and supported rapeseed oil in the short term. Overall, the positive driving force of oil and fat still exists, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in a strong direction.

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in Week 43 (October 21-25, 2024) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

The price of rapeseed meal fell this week. Due to the increase in imported rapeseed meal, the operating rate of coastal oil mills remained high, the inventory of rapeseed meal was high, and the supply of rapeseed meal was sufficient. In addition, the rapeseed meal transaction was sluggish, and the demand for rapeseed meal weakened during the off-season of aquaculture, and rapeseed meal was sold at a reduced price. It is expected that rapeseed meal will be weak in the short term. Rapeseed meal lacks the support of favorable factors, and strong supply and weak demand suppress the rapeseed meal market. In the later period, pay more attention to the price difference of soybean and rapeseed meal, the price difference of sunflower and rapeseed meal, the port arrival volume and the start-up situation, and continue to pay attention to the trade relationship between China and Canada.