01 Rapeseed

In the 42nd week (October 14-18, 2024), the national average price of rapeseed net seeds was 2.975 yuan/jin. The rapeseed price in Jiangsu was around 3.07-3.10 yuan/jin, rising; the rapeseed price in Hunan was 2.90-2.95 yuan/jin, stable; the rapeseed price in Hubei was around 2.90 yuan/jin, rising; the rapeseed price in Sichuan was 3.00-3.05 yuan/jin, stable. The rapeseed market conditions in various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various parts of China fluctuated and adjusted in a narrow range. Spring rapeseed was put on the market in batches, and there was still a large amount of imported rapeseed arriving at the port. In the short term, rapeseed supply was sufficient, which was bearish for the rapeseed market. The market's attitude towards anti-dumping weakened, which was bearish for the rapeseed market. In terms of demand, rapeseed demand weakened due to the decline in rapeseed meal prices and poor demand, which was bearish for the rapeseed market. Domestic rapeseed prices were at a low level, and traders were willing to support prices, supporting the rapeseed market. The weather at the end of the Canadian rapeseed growth period was relatively dry, and the Canadian rapeseed production forecast was lowered. Canadian rapeseed prices rebounded slightly, but the increase was limited. Russia's rapeseed production was good, and rapeseed and rapeseed oil will be concentrated in Hong Kong, impacting the domestic rapeseed market.

It is expected that domestic rapeseed will be mainly stable in the short term, and the domestic rapeseed market will continue to be loose in supply, while dealers and farmers are willing to support prices. Russian rapeseed will soon arrive in large quantities, impacting the domestic rapeseed market price. In the future, pay more attention to the downstream demand for domestic rapeseed, China-Canada relations and the subsequent development of the anti-dumping incident.

02 Rapeseed oil

In the 42nd week (October 14-18, 2024), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is 9,748 yuan/ton, an increase of 86 yuan/ton from last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices continued to rise this week, and the main rapeseed oil 2409 closed at 9596 yuan/ton on Friday. The main reason for the rise is that the production of Malaysian palm oil has declined while exports have increased significantly, and with the support of macroeconomic policies, rapeseed oil prices have risen.

In the spot market, the arrival volume of rapeseed oil in the fourth quarter increased, rapeseed oil inventories remained high, and rapeseed oil supply was sufficient. In terms of demand, the demand for rapeseed oil has weakened after the holidays, which is bearish for the rapeseed oil market. Rapeseed oil has strong supply and weak demand, dragging down the rapeseed oil market.

It is expected that the spot price of rapeseed oil futures will fall in the short term, the impact of macroeconomic policies will weaken, and the price will be too high, which is not conducive to the demand for rapeseed oil, thereby suppressing the price of rapeseed oil. In addition, a large number of domestic soybeans related to oils and fats have arrived at the port, the oil mills are crushing and operating at high levels, the inventory remains high, the domestic soybean oil supply is loose, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of US soybeans has led to a decline in international oil prices, which is bearish for the oil and fat market. There are many bearish factors in the oil and fat market, and rapeseed oil prices may follow the decline.

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in Week 42 (October 14-18, 2024) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, the price of rapeseed meal fell, and the transaction volume of rapeseed meal was sluggish. In addition, the demand for rapeseed meal weakened due to the off-season of aquaculture, and rapeseed meal was sold at a reduced price. Due to the increase in imported rapeseed meal, the operating rate of coastal oil mills remained high, the inventory of rapeseed meal was at a high level, and the supply of rapeseed meal was sufficient. It is expected that rapeseed meal will run weakly in the short term, and there are few positive factors for rapeseed meal. Strong supply and weak demand suppress the rapeseed meal market. In the later period, pay more attention to the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the price difference between sunflower meal and rapeseed meal, the port arrival volume and the start-up situation, and continue to pay attention to the trade relationship between China and Canada.